题目
1.已知P(A)=0.5,P(B|A)=0.4,P(B|overline(A))=0.6,求P(B).
1.已知P(A)=0.5,$P(B|A)=0.4$,$P(B|\overline{A})=0.6$,求P(B).
题目解答
答案
根据全概率公式,有:
\[
P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|\overline{A})P(\overline{A})
\]
已知 $ P(A) = 0.5 $,则 $ P(\overline{A}) = 0.5 $。代入条件概率得:
\[
P(B) = (0.4 \times 0.5) + (0.6 \times 0.5) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5
\]
或者,利用条件概率定义计算:
\[
P(BA) = P(B|A)P(A) = 0.2, \quad P(B\overline{A}) = P(B|\overline{A})P(\overline{A}) = 0.3
\]
则:
\[
P(B) = P(BA) + P(B\overline{A}) = 0.5
\]
**答案:** $\boxed{0.5}$