17. (3.3分) 设随机事件A,B,C相互独立,且P(A)=P(B)=0.5,P(C)=0.4,则P(C-A|A∪BC)= A 1/4 B 1/5 C 1/6 D 1/7
题目解答
答案
设事件 $ A $、$ B $、$ C $ 相互独立,且 $ P(A) = P(B) = 0.5 $,$ P(C) = 0.4 $。
求 $ P(C - A \mid A \cup B) $,其中 $ C - A $ 表示 $ C $ 发生但 $ A $ 不发生,即 $ C \cap A^c $。
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计算 $ P(A \cup B) $:
$P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) = 0.5 + 0.5 - 0.25 = 0.75$ -
计算 $ P(C - A) $:
$P(C - A) = P(C \cap A^c) = P(C)P(A^c) = 0.4 \times 0.5 = 0.2$ -
计算 $ P((C - A) \cap (A \cup B)) $:
$(C - A) \cap (A \cup B) = C \cap A^c \cap (A \cup B) = C \cap A^c \cap B$
$P(C \cap A^c \cap B) = P(C)P(A^c)P(B) = 0.4 \times 0.5 \times 0.5 = 0.1$ -
计算条件概率:
$P(C - A \mid A \cup B) = \frac{P((C - A) \cap (A \cup B))}{P(A \cup B)} = \frac{0.1}{0.75} = \frac{2}{15}$
但选项中无 $\frac{2}{15}$,考虑题目可能为 $ P(C - A \mid A \cup (B \cap C)) $:
$P(A \cup (B \cap C)) = 0.6, \quad P((C - A) \cap (A \cup (B \cap C))) = 0.1$
$P(C - A \mid A \cup (B \cap C)) = \frac{0.1}{0.6} = \frac{1}{6}$
答案: $\boxed{C}$