It is generally believed that improper human activities contribute to global warming. But this belief is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years. Based on statistics from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997. The figures also suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age comparable to the 70-year temperature drop in the 17th century.Meanwhile, climate scientists said that, after releasing unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th century, the sun is now heading toward a “grand minimum” in its output (输出). This is likely to cause cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots (太阳黑子) seen at their peak. We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call “Cycle 24”. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th century. Analysis by experts suggests that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.According to a paper published last week, there is a 92 percent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than the period of 1790 to 1830. In that period, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2℃. It is also possible that the new solar energy drop could be as deep as what happened between 1645 and 1715 when the canals of Holland froze solid.1. According to the author, which of the following views seem to be generally accepted but may now prove wrong?A) The sun output is getting weaker.B) The earth is facing a temperature drop.C) The sun output is getting more harmful.D) The earth is getting warmer and warmer. 2. According to the new temperature data, ____________.A) world temperatures will continue to riseB) world temperatures have not risen since 1997 C) world temperature will keep dropping for the next 70 yearsD) world temperatures have been dropping for the past 15 years3. Which of the following is implied, but not directly stated as a possible consequence of reduced solar output?A) Bitter winters.B) Cold summers.C) Shortened seasons.D) Reduced food production. 4. What can we learn about sun energy in the 20th century and 21st century?A) Solar output will reach its minimum in the 21st century.B) Solar output in the 20th century was the highest in history.C) Sunspot numbers in Cycle 24 has reached its peak in the 21st century.D) Sunspot numbers in Cycle 24 is less than half those in the 20th century. 5. What is predicted about solar energy in Cycle 25?A) Cycle 25 may be stronger than Cycle 24.B) Cycle 25 may be weaker than the following decades.C) Cycle 25 may be as weak as the period of 1645 to 1715. D) Cycle 25 may be stronger than the period of 1790 to 1830.
题目解答
答案
解析
整体考察内容
本文围绕“全球变暖是否因人类活动导致”这一话题,引入新的气温气温数据和太阳活动周期变化,考察对细节信息的理解、观点的判断判断及隐含信息的推理能力。
题目1解析
问题:作者认为以下哪种观点曾被普遍接受,但现在可能被证明是错误的?
关键信息:首句提到“人们普遍认为不当人类活动导致全球变暖(improper human activities contribute to global warming)”,但新数据显示“过去15年地球未变暖(the planet has not not warmed for the past 15 years)”,说明“地球正变得越来越暖”这一观点可能错误。
选项选项分析:
- A:太阳输出减弱(文中未提“普遍接受”接受,且是新观点);;
- B:地球面临降温(新数据结论,非普遍接受的旧观点);
- C:太阳输出更有害(未提及);
- D:地球越来越暖(普遍接受但被新数据挑战)。
答案:D**
题目2解析
问题:根据新气温数据,以下哪项正确?
关键信息:第二段明确“数据确认全球气温上升趋势在1997年结束(the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997)”,即1997年至今约15年,即“过去15年未上升”。
选项分析:
- A:气温将继续上升(与“趋势结束”矛盾);
- B:1997年以来未上升(符合“上升趋势结束”);
- C:未来70年持续下降(文中说“可能 heading for a mini ice age”,但未明确“未来70年”);
- D:过去15年持续下降(数据仅说“未变暖”,未提“下降”)。
答案:B
题目3解析
问题:以下哪项是太阳输出减少的隐含后果,而非直接陈述?
关键信息定位:第三段直接提到“可能导致冷夏(cold summers)、严冬(bitter winters)和生长期缩短(shortening of the season for growing food)”。
选项分析:
- A、B、C均为直接陈述;
- D:粮食减产(“reduced food production”是“生长期缩短”的隐含结果(生长期短→产量减),未直接陈述。
答案:D
题目4解析
问题:关于20世纪和21世纪的太阳能,我们能学到什么?
关键信息:第四段“我们现在处于Cycle 24的峰值期,但太阳黑子数量不到20世纪周期峰值的一半(sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th century)”。
选项分析:
- A:21世纪太阳输出达最低(文中说“heading for a grand minimum”,未明确“已达”);
- B:20世纪太阳输出最高(未提“历史最高”);
- C:Cycle 24峰值在21世纪(文中说“now at what should be the peak”,但未确认“已达”);
- D:Cycle 24黑子数不到20世纪一半(直接对应原文)。
答案:D明确“已达”); - B:20世纪太阳最高(未提“历史最高”);
- C:Cycle 24峰值在21世纪(文中说“now at what should be the peak”,但未确认“已达”);
- D:Cycle 24黑子数不到20世纪一半(直接对应)。
答案:D
题目5解析
问题:关于Cycle 25的太阳能预测是什么?
关键信息:第五段“有92%的可能Cycle 25及后续几十年的周期会弱于或等于1790-1830年时期,甚至可能像1645-1715年那样严重(could be as deep as what happened between 1645 and 1715)”。
选项分析:
- A:比Cycle 24强(文中说Cycle 25“a great deal weaker still”,错误);
- B:比后续几十年弱(文中说“Cycle 25和后续 decades一样或更弱”,错误);
- C:可能像1645-1715年一样弱(“could be as deep as”对应“as weak as”);
- D:比1790-1830年强(文中说“弱于或等于”,错误)。
答案:C